, 2022-09-29 07:02:53,
Two good weeks in a row. Let’s keep the intro short. I’m terrified of jinxing myself.
We’ve got another full slate of games on the schedule, including our first London matchup. Lines are from FanDuel. Stats are from TruMedia/Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Week 3 record: 10-6
Season record: 28-20
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
The Dolphins defense was on the field for 90 snaps last week and now has to face Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase on the road on short rest. That’s a really tough spot to be in.
As of this writing, it’s unclear whether the Dolphins will have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for this game. He’s questionable, along with left tackle Terron Armstead, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, and cornerback Xavien Howard. This could easily be a schedule loss for Miami, but given the Dolphins’ ability to produce explosive plays and pressure opposing quarterbacks, I like them to keep it close.
The pick: Dolphins (+3.5)
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (+2.5)
Kirk Cousins versus Jameis Winston, London at 9:30 a.m. ET, just feels right. The Vikings overcame a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to rally for a win against the Lions last week. But it feels like their defense is making life a little too easy on opposing quarterbacks, who are completing 69.4 percent of their passes against Minnesota.
The Saints, meanwhile, managed to lose to the Panthers last week, despite allowing just 12 first downs and 148 passing yards. Winston is dealing with back and ankle injuries but is expected to start.
My only expectation for this game is chaos. And when that’s the case, I take the points.
The pick: Saints (+2.5)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
The Colts found a winning formula last week against the Chiefs. Here’s everything that needed to happen to squeak out a 20-17 win:
- The Chiefs muffing a punt
- The Chiefs missing a 34-yard FG
- The Chiefs missing a PAT
- The Chiefs botching a fake FG
- Travis Kelce dropping a TD
- Chris Jones getting called for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that turned fourth-and-14 into a first down on the Colts’ game-winning drive
If the Colts can just force their opponents to make all of those mistakes every week, they might finish the season 15-1-1.
Let’s be honest: Indy has flat-out looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their offense is 32nd in expected points added (EPA) per drive. Nothing I saw last week suggested that this is a team close to figuring things out.
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